Register to get unlimited access to all of Citywire’s Fund Manager database. Registration is free and only takes a minute.

Revealed: the views of all Europe's AAA-rated managers

The exclusive Citywire AAA-rated fund manager survey uncovers what the top tier talent has to say on everything from gold, the eurozone crisis, to absolute return.

Cash levels in many managers’ portfolios rose at the end of 2011 following the summer’s market crisis. This negative outlook, however, appears to have changed as our survey of Citywire’s AAA-rated managers shows over 80% of those polled currently have under 5% of their portfolios in cash.

Country focus: Germany

Looking at the results from Germany-based managers, all of those who participated in the poll said they are currently holding less than 5% in cash.

Note: This survey was carried out by Citywire Global over the past month and canvassed the opinion of fund managers in our database who hold a Citywire AAA rating.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The overwhelming majority of managers are comfortable with their level of risk with almost 80% of AAA-rated managers voting for this option.

This suggests many top-rated managers do not intend to make any drastic changes to their portfolios and are confident their funds can withstand current headwinds.

Country focus: UK

Among those polled, UK-based managers appeared to have a more confident outlook on the market as 11% of them said they are likely to add more risk to their portfolios in the near future.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Confidence over the outlook in the US is growing as over half of the managers questioned said a revival of the country’s badly hit housing market is the most likely surprise in 2012.

The two other options failed to grab managers' attention with a third offering their own opinion on what would likely happen. Among the possible scenarios put forward were an Italian revival and gold reaching $2000.

Country focus: Germany

Managers based in Germany were split when it came to the outlook of the US and sovereign debt with around a third of them voting for each option.

Among the other possible positive outcomes in 2012 was better than expected world growth.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The US may be on many top managers shopping list at the moment but our poll revealed that of the negative scenarios included in our survey, a slowdown in its economy was the most likely.

The battle between China and a possible oil shock ended in a draw as the AAA-rated managers failed to decide which was most probable of these two outcomes.

Country focus: UK

While many other negative surprises were put forward by those polled, the two most prominent among UK managers were more European debt problems and Spain falling into the hands of the Troika.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The extensive coverage the eurozone crisis has received appears justified according to these results as an overwhelming majority of Citywire AAA-rated managers still believe it is the biggest danger to the global economy.

Trust in Europe’s politicians also appears minimal with less than 10% showing support and trust in their potential to deal with the crisis.

Country focus: Germany

Germany-based managers were the ones that had the most positive outlook on the eurozone. While two thirds still felt it was the world’s biggest problem, the remaining third opted for either boring irrelevance or that Europe’s politicians have it covered.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The outlook for China remains positive for Citywire’s top rated managers with the world’s second biggest economy leading the way in terms of growth potential. All the BRIC nations, in fact, feature in the top four with the US rounding off the top five.

Country focus: Switzerland

China was also the dominant nation for GPD potential among Swiss-based managers. However, while many other European managers had the US outside the top four, Swiss managers have the country in second place ahead of India and Brazil.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

These results show the combined consensus across all AAA-rated managers is inflation will stay broadly the same. Expectations for it to fall a little, rise a little or stay the same all hover around the 30% mark.

Country focus: UK

Of the UK-based AAA-rated managers, opinion was divided on which way inflation would move. In total, 32% of UK respondents said it would rise a little, while 36% said they expected it to fall a little. The option of it staying the same garnered 18% of the vote.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The volatility of markets on both sides of the Atlantic has caused gold to sit around $1,700 per ounce for extended periods and talk of it breaching $2,000 is also coming to fore. On balance, 57% of our top-rated managers said the obsession with the precious metal had been understandable.

Country focus: Germany

Top-rated managers based in Germany were the closest to offering a divergent view on the real value of gold. While around 60% of respondents said they understood why gold had become so popular, 20% of managers said the amount of attention it had received was nonsensical.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The threat of a major oil shock and the potential geopolitical knock-on effect has been discussed extensively by managers in recent months.

However, our AAA-rated fund managers took a more cautious approach, with nearly 70% of respondents expecting it to move but stay within 10% of current prices.

Country focus: Switzerland

Top rated Switzerland-based managers laid their necks on the line in the oil stakes, with nearly three-quarters of respondents expecting an upward move on the oil price.

While the majority of them expect an increase of 10% or less, there was around 15% support for an 11-20% jump in global oil prices.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The majority of AAA-rated managers said they still prefer long-only strategies over absolute return strategies.

Among the reasons managers volunteered to explain why they did not have absolute return strategies were it was due their mandates not allowing it or that they were bullish on equity markets.

Country focus: Sweden

A Sweden-based fund manager commented that client demand for long-only was higher than absolute return strategies in his domestic market.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

For the vast majority of our surveyed AAA-rated managers it will be more than a year before we begin to see cash flowing back from corporate debt to sovereign debt.

Country focus: Switzerland

Switzerland-based managers were the most split between cash ‘never’ flowing back and it flowing back in the course of three years, with a third opting for the former and half the latter.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Tellingly the Citywire AAA-rated managers polled did not rank sectors according to defensive or cyclical stocks suggesting that, according to them, we are not heading for a clear bull or bear market before the end of 2013.

Country focus: Germany

Consumer discretionary will outperform all other sectors in 2013, according to Germany-based managers. Consumer discretionary was here ranked far ahead of healthcare which came in second place.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.
Events
  • Citywire Zurich

    Citywire Zurich

  • Citywire Deutschland

    Citywire Deutschland

  • Citywire Singapore

    Citywire Singapore

  • Citywire Maastricht 2013

    Citywire Maastricht 2013

  • Citywire Stockholm

    Citywire Stockholm

  • Citywire Montreux 2013

    Citywire Montreux 2013

  • Citywire Hong Kong

    Citywire Hong Kong

  • Citywire Zurich

    Citywire Zurich

  • Citywire Deutschland

    Citywire Deutschland

  • Citywire Monreux 2013

    Citywire Monreux 2013

  • Citywire Montreux 2013

    Citywire Montreux 2013

  • Citywire Singapore 2013

    Citywire Singapore 2013

  • Citywire Singapore 2013

    Citywire Singapore 2013